Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Liftoff: 2016-17 Part I

I've always dismissed the claim that improvement comes in big leaps after long plateaus as a comforting illusion - the opiate of the chess-playing masses. But a six-month review is difficult when I can pinpoint just such a jump. By 20th October, when I barely held a 144, I was marooned at a 163 performance and set to be there forever. But on 26th October I kicked off that watershed tournament in Gatwick and haven't looked back since. Clocking 192 over the 21 games since has blown away my gut feeling that it was a flash in the pan. This has skewed all of my stats, but I can show the merits of my spreadsheet work. We're back to one of my favourite themes today - know thyself! Years of posts like this have revealed some of my weaknesses, and this time there was progress on all fronts.

Openings: I used to really suffer as Black, but a 180 performance (+6 =8 -5) is almost identical to my White showing of 181 (+6 =9 -2). Last year I noted my struggles against the Sicilian, and now enjoyed 187 performance against it (+3 =2 -0). As Black, I'm benefiting from stability, hitting 174 with the Sicilian (+3 =4 -3) and 197 with 1. d4 d5 (+2 =2 -0). Openings are my greatest strength, of course, but you should still cast a critical eye - the two white losses weren't in threatening systems...

Leagues or Tournaments?: I obeyed Excel and axed most league chess in the summer to focus on tournaments. This was a good decision: I needed a late surge to hit 170 for league games (+3 =2 -2) whereas weekender-speed tournaments came in at 189 (+4 =9 -2). Slower events with one game per day were only worth 176 (+5 =6 -3) but that's dragged down by the Major Open and I see room to improve there. A very beneficial change, and easy to make once you notice the problem.

Opponents: I accept the wisdom of the crowd that you should aim for slightly stronger opponents; two thirds of my opponents were between 167 and 186. I've adapted to them now, with a remarkable +4 =8 -0 score for 167-176s: not many wins, but since October I've been invincible against anyone under 196. I'm not much of a bunny-basher any more though, getting only +4 =3 -1 in my rare games as the favourite. Which brings us to my thorniest topic...

Draws: Psychology can be quantifiable! With some added confidence, fewer games were drawn (17/36 from 17/33) and the offer rate plunged (0.47/game from 0.76/game). Then again, I offered a bigger share of the draws (11/17 from 12/25) and only declined one (previously four) so there's still progress to make. Every game with a draw offer was eventually drawn - last time I got +3 =1 from refusals, and opponents +2 =2. The draws are proper games now; I'm just risk-averse so get lots of them.

Overall I enjoyed +12 =17 -7 against a 173 field for a 180 performance - my first clear plus score since the second half of 2013-14. Grades run off 12 months' data though, so my first prediction in a while is a more restrained 175. Finally smashing my ancient 170 target is anti-climactic though, since I'm looking higher now. If I can keep up the current pace then... well, who knows?

Not much has changed about my play (apart from the results!) but I will mention two things. Firstly, I'm not blundering at the moment - there are plenty of oversights, but they are finer details in the notes rather than immediate game-enders. This isn't accidental: since late October (!) I have been solving puzzles on Chessity almost every day. Not a new idea for me, but these are rapid-fire and very easy: I can speed through the 'easy' and 'medium' levels in 15 minutes, which has helped so much more than doing one or two complicated positions in 30. It's a confidence booster too. Concrete analytical details have always been a big hole in my play though, so I can't guarantee such benefits! Secondly - arising from the first change - I've become more comfortable with my strengths. I'm confident that I understand positions better than most at my level and have trusted my instinct more, with spectacular results in the final games of the year. However, other weaknesses have not gone away: I haven't made much progress at handling irrational positions, time trouble still reliably triggers a meltdown, and doubt continues to rear its head in key games.

Still, I can't avoid looking to the future with optimism. When I mentioned my original thoughts about Gatwick to my 4NCL captain in November, he rightly told me to stop worrying that this newfound strength would suddenly be snatched away again. I'm almost over that phase now, as much as the last four years sting. Since October I've been comfortably in the 190s, I know which events work for me, and I know my strengths and weaknesses as well as ever. There's every reason to look forwards rather than nervously watch my back. In that upbeat mindset, I played my first game of 2017 a few days ago, as the 4NCL circus descended on Northampton for our meeting with the pool leaders.

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